Highlights
[06:47] Review of Friday’s BTC plan: waiting for the 50% retracement of the engulfing candle before entering shorts, with the importance of time confluence alongside price levels.
[09:06] Managing existing longs when structure shifts bearish: selling into buyers on the retracement rather than exiting at the lows.
[10:46] Confirmation tools used on the breakdown: volume expansion, negative delta, and bearish engulfing candles signaling higher probability downside.
[11:16] Trade sequencing: folding longs into buyers, rotating short, then covering shorts and reversing long at the target box where a TD 13 sequential printed on BTC (alongside 9/13/8 signals on NQ).
[13:20] Discussion on developing intuition: gut feel comes from repetition, journaling trades, and recognizing market context (day of week, session, structure).
[16:08] Risk management technique for uncertain conditions:
Trail stops close to price to lock in risk
Accept the outcome — small win or small loss is acceptable
Treat uncertainty as risk-off
[18:02] The “buy back later” principle — being early is not fatal; wait for structure change and reclaim before re-entering with defined risk.
[19:43] BTC weekly structure analysis: price is one-time-framing up on the weekly, sitting between the 50 daily MA and the 200 weekly MA — a potential accumulation range.
[24:16] Weekly VWAP/POC observation: the naked weekly point of control sits lower, suggesting a potential magnet if the current session’s open is lost.
[27:28] Swing trade plan: if BTC accepts below the daily gap, target the true RTH gap fill lower for a swing long setup with stop below the recent low and target beyond the 1:1 extension and 200 SMA confluence.
[30:00] Channel deviation analysis showing three pivots with room for one more deviation below the 200 without reaching the deeper gap — mapping expected rotation.
[35:00] Intraday BTC plan: waiting for a retrace into the 63,500 area (weekly and monthly reference confluence) rather than chasing the overnight pop.
[37:37] Inverted chart technique: flipping the chart to check for pattern bias objectively — a head-and-shoulders formation appears, supporting downside continuation expectations.
[42:19] ES (S&P futures) squeeze analysis: overnight rally interpreted as a short squeeze after Friday’s break of balance failed to see follow-through; negative delta on the rally supports this view.
[47:20] Options positioning read: largest wall at 5500 acts as a magnet if reclaimed; void of positioning between key strikes signals a potential expansion move.
[50:00] ES trade construction:
Rejection at the 75% of the pivot from Friday’s high/low
Target: previous week’s value area low
Confluence with weekly point of control and value area high resistance
[54:23] Volume profile aggregation settings explained: tick 4 for weekly, tick 10 for monthly, tick 1 for daily — matching aggregation to timeframe for cleaner reads.
[55:20]Poor high playbook on NQ:
Identify two consecutive 30-minute periods printing equal highs (Q and V)
Wait for price to return to the V EQ (equilibrium) during the next session
Long entry at the imbalance with stop just below; target the poor high
Look for low volume on the retest to confirm lack of new sellers
[58:44] Confirmation of trade thesis via TD 9 sequential on QQQ RTH, suggesting potential intraday rally in equities.
We encourage traders to review these concepts carefully, journal each setup with attention to context and confluence, and apply strict risk management before acting on any observed structure.
