Highlights
[03:53] Introduction and context: Bitcoin remains within the same range from previous sessions, currently rejecting at the value area high. The highest probability outcome is still viewed as a move lower unless key resistance is reclaimed.
[05:47] Higher timeframe analysis on Bitcoin: monthly, weekly, and daily levels identified. A potential weekly resistance forms around $63,750, with no new levels above current price.
[09:23] Bias explained: while price stays below $65,000, the highest probability remains lower. A reclaim of $65,000 would open a potential move toward $76,000.
[10:33] Long trade setup on Bitcoin: confluence includes a weekly level, value area low, weekly naked point of control, Fibonacci CC, and the $60,000 psychological level. Invalidation on loss of $59,500.
[12:03]Defining reclaims and losses of levels:
Wicks alone do not confirm reclaims or losses.
Acceptance is typically confirmed by two consecutive 30-minute candle closes.
Higher timeframe confirmation is stronger but slower — 30-minute closes offer a balanced day-trader perspective.
[14:08] Downside targets if support fails: next areas of interest at $57,000 and $55,000. Levels should be watched with alerts, order flow, and context before deciding action.
[15:11] Trade philosophy: even in a bear market, longs may still be taken at strong areas of interest, but with full awareness that they may be stopped out. Focus is on entry triggers, confluence, and risk-defined setups.
[17:14] Example of an SFP (swing failure pattern) long onto the monthly naked point of control — a low-probability but well-structured trade producing a favorable rotation.
[18:39]Risk management math:
Even a 30–40% win rate can be profitable when losses are controlled and winners produce larger reward-to-risk.
Focus on the P&L curve, not win rate percentage.
[22:16] Short trade opportunities on Bitcoin: fake-out at range high near $67,000 onto the downtrend anchored VWAP from all-time highs is preferred. A confluence short zone builds if time develops.
[25:39] Broader bias reaffirmed: expecting lower prices, with $40,000–$30,000 as a possible extended downside target under the ongoing bearish structure and Elliott wave interpretation.
[27:19] Local reclaim scenario: if Bitcoin reclaims the point of control with support from the uptrend anchored VWAP, a daily long setup becomes possible with defined invalidation.
[34:29] Stock market context: NASDAQ down nearly 2%, driven by weakness in tech and chip stocks including SanDisk, Micron, and others.
[36:50] NASDAQ analysis: bearish market structure with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Preferred setup would be a rotation into value area low with untested uptrend anchored VWAP confluence.
[39:19] S&P 500: stronger than NASDAQ, with a preferred long entry on a pullback into the CC / point of control zone near $4,740. New all-time highs viewed as likely near-term.
[40:40] Micron setup: key long area of interest at the uptrend anchored VWAP and gap fill zone around $780–$730. Aggressive limit orders placed with expectation of a quick reactive bounce.
[43:19] SpaceX: bearish structure with potential move toward $100. First bounce opportunity near a backtest of prior support around $147–$150.
[46:57] Chart inversion technique: mentally flip a chart to identify whether one would long or short, then apply the correct logic to the actual chart to reduce bias.
[48:39] Nvidia: rejection at the downtrend anchored VWAP near $210 viewed as a take-profit zone. Preferred outcome is reclaim of value area high leading to new all-time highs. Alternative long zones near $200 and $170 (major uptrend anchored VWAP).
[53:59] MicroStrategy short setup: earlier short entry near $100 with invalidation above $105 produced ~10% profit. Extended downside target near $50 aligned with a broader Bitcoin decline scenario.
[55:19] Correlation view: MicroStrategy at $50 and Coinbase at $100 would likely require Bitcoin trading toward the $40K region.
[57:19] SanDisk: weekly-level swing failure pattern produced a strong bounce. Next long opportunities at the weekly point of control and a fake-out setup below value area low.
[59:19] Samsung (traded via tokenized access): main long interest at $110 and $100 value area low. Aggressive gap-fill entry near $154 as a secondary setup. Reminder: TradingView defaults to local currency for foreign stocks — switch to USD for accurate levels.
[1:03:19] Altcoin outlook: Solana and Ethereum viewed as weak, with limited high-probability setups. Preferred approach is trading altcoins only in strong trend conditions, not attempting to buy prolonged bear market bottoms.
[1:09:39] Ethereum: potential higher low setup within a range, but confluence is limited. Long interest only if price sweeps range low for a fake-out.
[1:14:19] Oil trade recap: gap-fill and CC Fibonacci support produced a strong bounce. Next compounding opportunities require continuation and a clean backtest of the breakout for a new uptrend anchored VWAP setup.
[1:21:19] Ascending triangle observation on Bitcoin locally: breakout target aligns with range high; breakdown target aligns with the previously outlined support zone — a useful structural reference.
[1:23:53] Q&A insights:
Day trading stocks uses the same framework as crypto — confluence, alerts, areas of interest.
Trades are taken when alerts trigger, regardless of session timing, typically held from hours to days.
Stop-loss placement lessons: moving stops to entry can cause premature exits during volatile retests.
[1:26:19] Oil compounding discussion: current levels lack confluence; continuation and a structured backtest of ~$75 would offer stronger reentry opportunities.
We are encouraged to review these setups carefully, wait for high-quality confluence, and apply strict risk management before considering any trade.
